COVID-19 has unleashed an avalanche of COULD. We are bombarded daily by experts telling us what COULD happen. To understand the wide range of COULD, simply turn on the news and see how differently COULD is used in the context of this pandemic. It ranges from “this virus COULD kill millions” to “this virus COULD be no more deadly than the flu.” In full transparency, I do not know who to believe, and if I am candid, I am drawn to the gloom and doom version of COULD. The bleak image of millions of deaths captures my caveman brain that is wired to avoid pain, danger, and death. I breeze over the best case COULD and unconsciously attach my attention to the worst case of COULD. The result of this attachment to the worse case COULD then drives my thoughts and actions as I respond to the changing landscape of the pandemic. But when I look back at some of these early predictions of what “COULD” happen I am shocked at the inaccuracy.
In mid-March, the White House predicted that up to 2.2 million people COULD die from Covid-19, and then by the end of April those numbers were reduced to 240,000.
On March 24, experts predicted that Florida COULD see 465,000 people hospitalized, but as of May 1 only 2,011 were hospitalized.
In early April, Vanderbilt University predicated that Tennessee COULD have 5,000 citizens hospitalizations at the mid-May peak, but as of May 13 200 people had been hospitalized and have changed the expected peak level to 300.
COULD is easy, especially when it accompanies fear. Humans are wired to be much more aware of the danger and focus on even the most remote chance of harm. This primitive, illogical, habit has allowed our species to flourish. And while the awareness of all of the things that COULD happen is important, we must not become paralyzed by COULD. Imagine if we took COULD to the most severe degree we would never get out of bed. Here are some things that COULD kill you: falling down stairs (12,000/year), drowning while taking a bath (14,000/year), snakebite (50,00/year), dog bite (25,000/year), or getting hit by a car (6,000/year).
COULD becomes powerless when confronted with STATISTICS. While this reality is hopeful, it is also troubling because humans are horrible at statistics. Not only are humans bad at the actual computation required to leverage STATISTICS, but we are also even worse at reminding ourselves to ground our fears in the realities of statistics. We must purposefully engage the part of our brains that use statistics. Emotions are automatic. Math, not so much.
So, in an effort to keep myself sane, I focus on the following STATISTICS when I am overwhelmed by all of the news of what COULD happen.
People under the age of 65 have a 1 in 5,464 chance of dying from COVID-19. For a point of reference, 1 in 2,618 people die from choking, and 1 in 7,077 people die from sunstroke.
80% of deaths occur to people over 65 years of age.
33% of deaths have occurred in nursing homes.
I am not arguing to totally resume a normal way of life, but continued isolation because of what COULD happen seems to be ineffective. See - New York Governor Shocked that most new cases come from people on lock-down, and Covid-19 Deaths decline in Georgia and Florida. At-risk populations need to remain diligent in keeping themselves safe, but people need to anchor themselves in the reality of the STATISTICS, not in the ambiguity created by COULD.